Serbia’s $1.63B Israeli Arms Deal Fuels Balkans Security Fears

Serbia’s decision in August 2025 to sign a $1.63 billion defense contract with Israel’s Elbit Systems—the largest-ever Israeli arms sale to a European country—has rattled the Western Balkans. For Bosniaks (Muslim Bosnians), the deal is a stark reminder of the military lifelines which supported Serbia just 30 years ago during the Bosnian Genocide.

A Strategic Shift, Public and Expansive

The contract, announced in August 2025, covers a wide range of advanced military systems to be delivered over five years. These include long-range precision artillery, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance and combat, electronic warfare systems, electro-optical and night-vision technologies, combat vehicle upgrades, and a comprehensive suite of C4ISR (Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities.

Serbian officials have described the deal as a step in modernizing the country’s defense forces to “21st-century standards.” However, the scope and symbolism of the contract have stirred concern in Sarajevo and beyond, particularly due to the historical relationship between Israel and Serbia during the Bosnian War (1992–1995).

Why Bosniaks See This as a Threat

• Historical Continuity: Weapons once supplied in secrecy during genocide are now sold openly in peacetime—raising fears that history’s darkest chapters may inform today’s strategy.

• Regional Power Balance: While Bosnia and Herzegovina remains politically fractured and blocked from EU and NATO accession—primarily due to obstruction by Bosnia’s Serb leadership—Serbia is acquiring advanced weaponry that widens the region’s security gap.Serbia’s deepening defense ties with Israel—and continued alignment with Russia—undercut Brussels’ leverage. This “triangle” positions Serbia outside Western integration pathways, reinforcing Bosnia’s strategic isolation.
• EU and NATO Roadblocks: Bosnia’s long-delayed EU and NATO ambitions face growing hurdles, largely due to the obstructionist Republika Srpska—representing Bosnian Serbs—and its leader, Milorad Dodik, who continues to push for secession and deepen ties with Russia. Complicating matters, the Republika Srpska’s close relationship with Israel—and Serbia’s recent $1.63B arms deal with Tel Aviv—threatens to further stall Bosnia’s EU accession, despite Bosnia’s EU Eligibility Since 2015, by normalizing military cooperation that undermines regional integration efforts. This triangle—Serbia, Israel, Russia—creates a security and political bloc that often positions itself against Western integration projects in the Balkans.

• Stark Reminder of Vulnerability: For Bosniaks, this contract—packaged with language suggesting combat readiness and proven effectiveness—reinforces long-held fears: that their safety is negotiable, and regional stability remains fragile.
• Symbolic Parallels: Many Bosniaks draw a parallel between Palestinians today and Bosniaks in the 1990s—both populations subjected to siege, displacement, and mass killing, while Israel plays a role in the weapons supply chain. Seeing Serbia now openly buy “combat-proven” systems from Israel sends a chilling message—that what was once covert support in the ’90s has now become mainstream, legitimized defense cooperation.

Historical Context: Arms, Embassies, and Withheld Records

In the early 1990s, despite a UN-imposed arms embargo on all former Yugoslav republics (UN Security Council Resolution 713), Serbia and Bosnian Serb forces reportedly obtained arms from multiple sources, including Israel. Investigative reporting, survivor testimonies, and weapons tracking by international monitors have pointed to shipments of Israeli-manufactured small arms, ammunition, and artillery components reaching forces involved in ethnic cleansing operations in Bosnia.

At the same time, Israel re-established formal diplomatic ties with Yugoslavia in 1991, after a 24-year suspension. By early 1992, Israel had reopened its embassy in Belgrade, and Yugoslavia reciprocated in Tel Aviv—months before full-scale conflict erupted in Bosnia. Critics and historians have noted that this timing enabled a channel for military cooperation at a sensitive geopolitical moment.

In 2016, the Israeli Supreme Court rejected a petition—filed by human rights attorney Eitay Mack and genocide scholar Yair Auron—that sought to declassify government records about potential arms exports to Serbia during the Bosnian War. The petition argued that transparency was crucial to assess whether Israeli weapons contributed to war crimes, including the 1995 Srebrenica genocide, as ruled by the ICTY.

The court upheld a lower ruling, stating that the public’s right to know was outweighed by concerns about national security and foreign relations, effectively keeping these documents hidden despite acknowledging their existence. Critics, including Mack and Auron, have noted that the court’s language—particularly its failure to deny the existence of such exports—serves as implicit confirmation that they indeed occurred.

The Past Rearmed

This comes at a particularly poignant moment: the 30th anniversary of the end of the Bosnian genocide. On July 11, 2025, thousands gathered for solemn memorials and a historic peace march retracing escape routes taken by Bosniak men from Srebrenica, with burials continuing of newly identified victims from the massacre.

The deal also unfolds amid rising tensions between Serbia and Croatia, adding another layer of regional anxiety. In recent months, Serbia has expelled numerous Croatian citizens and civil society activists, labeling them security threats. The move has prompted formal protests from Zagreb and led the Croatian government to issue travel warnings, according to AP News. This convergence of collective memory, military buildup, and diplomatic friction deepens the chilling symbolism of Serbia’s arms purchases.